BCPNP- Will scores reduce soon?
Table of Contents
BCPNP – FOI Request July 2024
A Freedom of Information Request to the BC Provincial Government filed in March 2024 by Carry Immigration Services was completed and released on July 16th, 2024, taking around 3.5 months to complete.
As an RCIC in good standing for 7 years I have worked with BCPNP on multiple applications for various clients. They are a very professional office and team of officers. They are courteous, fair and I have always enjoyed a good working relationship with all the staff I have encountered in my work with them. They have limited resources, and their operations cannot be compared to the resources IRCC has. They do a great job and I want to acknowledge their hard and diligent work. They are facing a demand vs number of places available dilemma like every other federal or provincial stream throughout Canada.
Express Entry effect on BCPNP
In recent years after the issues faced in Express Entry (pause in draws from 2021-2022) and changes to category-based draws implemented in 2023. We have seen cut off scores that were extremely high and not achievable for most potential applicants. The introduction of Category-based draws and the ATIP request we completed showing IRCC’s planned 2024 percentage allocation for each category type had a huge impact for General applicants who were not French speakers or in selected Trades, STEM, Agriculture, Transport or Healthcare NOC codes.
The pressures faced in the Federally run Express Entry system added a lot of downward pressure on the provincial nomination programs across Canada since 2021, add to that an ever-increasing temporary resident population who hold work permits and study permits wishing to find a pathway towards PR. BCPNP has seen that pressure applied to their own programs. We have seen an unrelenting upward trend in BCPNP draws cut off scores in the past year that has not really stopped increasing and has become a concern for myself as someone who has mostly done BCPNP through my career. My own BCPNP workload has significantly dropped in 2024 of submitted applications for my clients and led me to this enquiry and publishing this article to find some reasons behind it all.
Findings from FOI Request
As of April 1st, 2024, the table from BCPNP below shows the Breakdown of candidates that were in the BCPNP pool. Broken down between the 5 different main streams in relation to Skilled Worker Streams. Keep in mind the figures below are now 3 months old. ITA scores now are at 134 SIRS points and have increased since this table was created.
Table above taken from FOI request issued by BCPNP July 16th, 2024.
- As of April 2024, we can see there were at least 1,709 Candidates sitting in the pool with over 100 SIRS points. Since April 2024, we have seen General draws every other week amount from only 30-35 Invitations To Apply issued usually with one draw reaching 47 ITA’s.
- The increase in cut off points in all draw types to date infers a continued added inventory of high scoring applicants and direct-to-application type streams (IPG and Health Authority) to date.
Current BC statistics
As per Statistics Canada data as of Q2 of 2024 estimates https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710012101&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.11&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=04&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2023&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=04&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2024&referencePeriods=20230401%2C20240401
- 259,777 people held work permits only
- 152,943 people held study permits only
- 51,359 people held both work and study permits.
The below table is taken from the Stats Canada website showing BC’s population of work permit holders.
BC is allocated a limit of 9,000 Nominations for 2024 and 10,000 Nominations in 2025 it can award to successful applicants who then can apply for Permanent Resident status.
Given the data we have on how many work permit holders and student visa holders reside in BC which include post graduate work permit (PGWP) holders, many of whom have a expectation or strong desire to acquire Permanent Resident status in Canada which has been well documented in the media lately.
Other Findings
Below screenshot of BCPNP internal email included in FOI request we received in July 2024.
In the FOI document package shared to us by BCPNP. We were able to see internal emails between BCPNP management and staff on how they manage draws, ITA’s and cut off scores.
- Feb 27th,2024 seen plans to increase points for priority occupations for health, construction and tech to maintain manageable application volumes and they had expected to have construction scores cap at 80 and back to 75. As of July16th ,2024 the most recent draw in construction was 95 points cut off.
- On March 12th, 2024, an internal email suggested that there was anticipation of BCPNP running into some challenges of longer processing times within the next few months with 2 reasons.
- Receiving a higher proportion of direct-to-application candidates (Health Authority and International Post Graduate Stream) There was a sudden jump of 18% of the inventory in 2022 of these application types to 32% in the first couple of months in 2024. This is quite a sudden increase.
- BCPNP found response rates were more diligent, where an ITA is issued to a candidate and the candidate then submitting a full application was consistently at a 76% response rate. In March it was found to be at 82% response rate due to the probability of applicants not being confident the cut off score to be invited again would not increase. This added to the inventory they had.
On March 19th, 2024, BCPNP was quick to follow up and take action on the level of International Post graduate direct application inventory by updating and revamping the stream. https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2024MUNI0016-000375
On July 15th, 2024, BCPNP also released an update on its news page https://www.welcomebc.ca/immigrate-to-b-c/news updating the public processing times for Skills Immigration applications submitted after May 2024 until early 2025 are expected to take longer than the expected 3 months for 80% of applications.
- The March 12th, 2024, email also suggested that the capacity was 200 applicants per week that the program could handle processing. This is another reason why points have jumped so high throughout 2024 as the number of applications rises steadily leading to inventory increase and processing times extended as a result.
- See below screenshot from FOI document that included internal BCPNP emails.
Conclusion
We already know there are changes coming to BCPNP streams in early 2025 from BCPNP announcements made public recently. We may see more changes possibly in response to current circumstances if BCPNP see fit to do so. BCPNP’s has a history of responding accordingly to the economic needs of BC as a primary factor in deciding how they issue nominations to applicants, meaning every year we see change in eligibility criteria or points system or NOC code prioritization.
It is currently a challenging time for both applicants and the BCPNP program itself.
The simple reality is there are limited spaces available that simply just cannot ever meet the demand of the current population size of temporary foreign workers currently residing and working in BC. It is mathematically impossible as it represents approximately 3-4% of those who hold work permits living in BC so the odds are not favorable.
It does not seem possible that SIRS cut off scores will reduce much from where they currently stand in the rest of 2024 and into early 2025 given the most recent public update of processing times being extended beyond normal 3 months into early 2025, combining that with the information presented by BCPNP in its table and internal emails suggesting issues in inventory back in march 2024. Which have not improved or reduced to now.
Niall Carry
RCIC, R517388